[Evaluation of the evolution of the six IC fabs in the world: Intel's chip process technology will fall into the background after three years] According to Linley's latest report from the research institute, Intel’s long-term advantage in chip manufacturing technology is disappearing due to the inability of new process technology to be successfully produced. , Maybe after 2021, Intel's chip process technology will fall into the background of Samsung Electronics and Samsung's competitors. Because Intel's 10-nanometer process further lags behind the plan, once the manufacturing advantage of the IC leader is disappearing. Last year (2017), both Samsung and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. developed 10nm technology and achieved mass production. Although the density and speed are far less than those of Intel's 10nm process, they are superior to Intel's 14nm technology. At the same time, TSMC launched 7nm technology and will start mass production in Q2 of 2018 to prepare for the next iPhone launch. If Intel suffers further delay, then TSMC's 7nm process will be roughly the same as Intel's 10nm. In addition, GlobalFoundries (Glofangte) and Samsung are also catching up with TSMC, hopefully not to lag behind TSMC too much, planning the fastest at the end of this year, the slowest at the beginning of next year, also producing 7nm products, at least at Intel can turn Before its next-generation (7-nanometer) process. Although these IC manufacturers have different names for IC processes, from the perspective of IC density analysis, foundry's 7nm technology is close to Intel's 10nm density, but the cost per transistor for 7nm may be better, although Intel seems to Leads at the original transistor speed. In short, the foundry's 7-nm node is similar to Intel's 10-nm function. Although the circuit density of each chip is different, the process name is not the same, but the gap with Intel is gradually narrowing. For example, the 7-nanometer process of TSMC is almost similar to Intel's 10-nanometer. However, Intel's new IC process technology may not be able to break through again, making it rely on superior manufacturing to make its products difficult to gain an advantage in the market. In the end is the curse of Moore's Law for semiconductors. Intel’s wafer manufacturing process is already exhausted. The reason is that it is necessary to find the companies that can use the most advanced chips and corresponding products, such as: Apple’s next-generation chips and mobile phones. product. Recently, Apple’s mobile phone chip foundry has been transferred from Intel to Samsung and then to TSMC. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. chairman Zhang Zhongmou once talked about Moore's Law. He thinks that it has failed. The key is that the time for mass production of the process may be lengthened, and the cost of manufacturing will also increase and will not be halved. However, there is no problem with the increase in transistor density determination, and it is expected to continue until 2030. Only 2025 will be the first to face the challenge of cost-effectiveness. In other words, future wafer yields will be more difficult, and R&D and equipment costs will be higher. This will be a major challenge for foundries. It is reported that TSMC's 7-nanometer manufacturing process has entered volume production. The speed will accelerate in the second half of this year. It is estimated that by the fourth quarter of this year, the 7-nanometer revenue ratio will increase to 20%, and the 7-nanometer total annual revenue share is expected to reach approximately 10%. As for the 10nm customers, they will switch to 7nm. TSMC's 7-nanometer customers include mobile application processors, network communications processors, programmable logic components, GPUs and game console special application ICs, and high-speed computing chips such as crypto-currency mining chips and artificial intelligence chips (AI). TSMC's 7-nanometer and 7-nanometer enhanced editions are progressing according to the established plan. Among them, 7-nanometer process has been introduced into product design plans by 18 customers and volume production will be completed by the end of the year. As for the introduction of the ultra-ultraviolet light, the 7-nanometer enhanced version will be launched next year. In mass production, 5 nanometers of ultra violet light are all used for mass production in 2020. As for the progress of the 12-foot factory in Nanjing, it started small-scale production in April 2018. The first-phase production capacity of 20,000 units per month will be dominated by customers in mainland China.
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